Second Demographic Readings in Memory of Anatoly Vishnevsky: The Theory of Demographic Transition and the Future of the Population of Russia and the World

On November 12–13, 2025, the HSE University hosted the conference “The Second Demographic Readings in Memory of A.G. Vishnevsky: The Theory of Demographic Transition and the Future of the Population of Russia and the World,” timed to coincide with the 90th birthday of the outstanding Russian demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky.

Anatoly Vishnevsky was an outstanding scholar and the leading demographer in Russia and the post-Soviet space. In 2007, he became the head of the Institute of Demography, established at the HSE University, thereby laying the foundation for demography education at HSE University. In 2009, the Master’s program “Demography” was launched, and A. G. Vishnevsky taught the course “Demographic History and Theory” to its students. On April 1, 2025, A. G. Vishnevsky would have turned 90…

The A.G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography and the International Laboratory for Population and Health Research jointly organized the “The Second Demographic Readings in Memory of A.G. Vishnevsky: The Theory of Demographic Transition and the Future of the Population of Russia and the World,” which brought together Vishnevsky`s family and friends, his colleagues, and students, who remembered him with particular warmth and gratitude.

Vishnevsky never focused his research on any single topic. He was characterized by a breadth of scientific interests. For this reason, the conference’s scientific program included eight thematic sessions, at which the latest findings of demographic research in the fields of historical demography, fertility, mortality, migration, population aging, and economic demography were presented.

Lilia Ovcharova, Mikhail Denisenko, Choro Seytov, Asem Aldangarkyzy, and Rim Valiakhmetov delivered opening remarks at the conference. In their speeches, each of the speakers emphasized the special role of Anatoly Vishnevsky in all areas of demography in Russia and worldwide, including demographic theory, the study of fertility, mortality, migration, and demographic history, as well as his contribution to the emergence and development of Russian demographic education.

Two sessions were devoted to long-term trends in mortality and population health in Russia and worldwide. The first of these was opened by the presentation “The Cost of Reproduction: The Contribution of Tumors of the Female Reproductive System to the Gender Gap in Survival,” prepared by Sergey Timonin, who joined the Institute of Demography in 2012 at the invitation of Anatoly Vishnevsky. The report by Sergey and his co-authors from the Australian National University presented the results of an analysis of the contribution of female reproductive system cancers—breast cancer and gynecological cancers—to the gender gap in survival rates in high-income countries with low mortality rates. The authors showed that women aged 35–60 have higher mortality rates from neoplasms than men in virtually all countries. The study highlighted the significance of cancer-related deaths in shaping the differences in life expectancy between men and women. A report by Aleksey Shchur and his co-authors presented an assessment of the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality among the Russian population aged 20–59 during the period 2000–2019. The results showed a significant decline in alcohol-related mortality in Russia: among men, its contribution to all-cause mortality decreased from 47.6% in 2003 to 29.5% in 2019, and among women, from 36.5% to 18.1%; the absolute number of deaths also decreased substantially. A report by Vladimir Shkolnikov and co-authors presented a new methodology for estimating healthy life expectancy in Russia, adjusted for the characteristics of self-reported health, and compared these indicators with those of European countries. It was shown that HLE depends significantly on cultural norms and the socioeconomic status of the population, and that Russia has a lower HLE than would be expected given its level of overall life expectancy, partly due to the high proportion of responses indicating “average” health. To improve data comparability, the “average” health category was reclassified into a dichotomy (“healthy” / “unhealthy”) based on logistic regression, which takes into account sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as objective health indicators.

At the session titled “Fertility in Russia: Trends and Policy Outcomes,” two fellow demographers from Lomonosov Moscow State University presented papers. Irina Troitskaya discussed methods for estimating fertility based on historical sources and archival materials, using the reproductive and marital histories of approximately 900 women from the Vykhinskaya estate as an example. Vladimir Arkhangelsky presented an analysis of changes in the age-specific fertility pattern among actual generations of Russian women, noting a shift toward later childbearing. Next, Elena Churilova and Evgeny Andreev addressed a rather controversial topic: the use of the expected number of children based on sample surveys to forecast total fertility. Victoria Sakevich examined trends in reproductive health (specifically, birth control practices) and regional differences in these indicators. And one of Vishnevsky’s first graduate students, Sergey Zakharov — now a prominent Russian demographer and leading expert on fertility issues — presented a paper on relative and absolute approaches to evaluating the results of fertility promotion policies in Russia.

The conference featured presentations not only by demographers, but also by sociologists and economists whose research interests are closely related to the field of demography. Vadim Radaev (First Vice Rector of the HSE University) discussed the transformation of coming-of-age patterns in Russia based on data from the HSE University’ RLMS Study for the period 1994–2023. In their presentation, Oksana Sinyavskaya, Stanislava Amsharinskaya, and Daria Kareva (HSE Institute for Social Policy) presented an assessment of the subjective well-being of older Russians in 1994–2024 using methods of analyzing age, period, and cohort effects. Vladimir Magun (Laboratory for Comparative Studies of Public Opinion, HSE University) discussed the dynamics of the Russian population’s core values from 2006 to 2024 based on data from nine waves of the European Social Survey. Tatyana Maleva (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) presented an interdisciplinary analysis of the relationship between the labor market, well-being, and demographic processes in contemporary Russia. Vladimir Gimpelson (Centre for Labour Market Studies, HSE University) delivered a presentation on the dynamics of subjective well-being and its projections.

The conference also featured presentations by colleagues and students of A.G. Vishnevsky from other Russian and foreign universities and research centers.