Conference "Current issues of Russian Demography"
Can human life expectancy be more than 100 years? How do heat and cold waves affect mortality? Do the elderly experience isolation from society? Does alcohol-related mortality differ by region of Russia? These and other issues were discussed on November 8 at the international conference "Current issues of Russian Demography" organized by International Laboratory for Population and Health.
Vice-Rector of the Higher School of Economics and Director of the Institute of Social Policy, Lilia Ovcharova, opened the conference, noting that today demography is in demand not only from a scientific perspective but also from a socio-political point of view. The conference became a platform for presenting the latest scientific results, exchanging opinions, and discussing pressing demographic issues.
Can human life expectancy exceed 100 years?
This question was addressed by Dmitry Jdanov, Chief Researcher at the International Laboratory for Population and Health, in his report "Life expectancy over a hundred years: dream or reality?". The record life expectancy, that is, the maximum age to which a person lives, is regularly increasing. On average, for each year, the period life expectancy increases by 0.25 years, that is, every day gives us six hours of additional life. At the same time, the cohort life expectancy grows much faster than the period one. Thus, women born in the 1970s can already expect that their life expectancy will be about 100 years. But are people ready for such a long life?
Do the elderly experience isolation from society?
Oksana Sinyavskaya, Deputy Director of the Institute of Social Policy, presented a report on the relationship between health, social exclusion, and quality of life among Russia's elderly population. She began by observing that while mortality reductions globally have extended lifespans, they have also increased the period spent with illnesses and limitations, contributing to social isolation among older adults. Using data from the 2021 National Survey of the Older Generation (NSOG-НИСП), Sinyavskaya reported that: 33% experience social exclusion, 13% experience economic exclusion, and 15% lack medical services. Social exclusion and quality of life in the elderly are significantly related to health characteristics.
Why do Russians often rate their health as normal?
Vladimir Shkolnikov, Scientific Director of the International Laboratory for Population and Health, and his co-authors tackled a recurring challenge in estimating healthy life expectancy in Russia: Russians disproportionately rate their health as "normal," complicating comparisons with other countries. One of the solutions to this problem, addressed by Vladimir Shkolnikov and his co–authors, is to train a logistic regression model to predict health in those who have defined their health as "average" based on various predictors of people who have defined health more accurately (different gradations of "good" and "bad"). In the results of the report, Vladimir Shkolnikov noted that in Russia, as in other countries of Eastern Europe, the minimum wage is increasing, and in Western Europe it is stagnating (although today the minimum wage is still higher there).
How do heat and cold waves affect mortality?
Sergey Timonin, a researcher at the Australian National University, presented a joint study with N. Shartova titled "The influence of air temperature on mortality in the 300 largest cities of Russia, 2000–2019." The study found that the minimum risk of death associated with air temperature is observed at temperatures just below 20 °C, while the risk of death is higher in women compared to men. If we talk about geographical differences, the regions of the south-west Russia suffer the most from heat, while mortality from cold has no geographical patterns. Interestingly, the relative risk of death from cold exceeds that from heat (except in southern cities). Cold affects all demographic groups similarly, while heat has the strongest impact on older women.
How does the spread of childlessness affect fertility rates?
Over the past 30–40 years, developed countries have seen a rising trend in the proportion of women who remain childless by the end of their reproductive years. Elena Churilova, senior researcher at the International Laboratory for Population and Health, using the example of four countries (Russia, the USA, Hungary and Denmark) showed that if childlessness did not grow, but remained at 5%, then the total fertility rate of women in these countries would be 0.1-0.2 children higher. The trend of childlessness cannot be statistically compensated by an increase in second and third births.
Does alcohol-related mortality differ by region of Russia?
Evgeny Andreev, Head of the International Laboratory for Population and Health, emphasized that Russia's persistently low life expectancy is a significant concern, with alcohol consumption remaining a key risk factor. Despite the increase in alcohol sales per capita in recent years, mortality from alcohol causes is decreasing, which is observed for the first time and requires a more in-depth analysis. Andreev analyzed changes in total and alcohol-related mortality in Russia between 1956 and 2019. His findings revealed a correlation between total mortality and alcohol-related mortality across regions. However, he cautioned that interregional differences are not solely driven by alcohol consumption. The dynamics of mortality among men in Russia as a whole and in certain regions correlates with changes in mortality from alcohol causes. However, the interregional differences cannot be explained solely by alcohol. Andreev noted that the relationship between total and alcohol-related mortality strengthens as alcohol-related mortality increases, highlighting alcohol consumption as a critical risk factor, particularly for men.