Seminar “Excess mortality in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic”
On June 4, the “Modern Demography” seminar featured a presentation by Ekaterina Degtiareva, research assistant at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, on excess mortality in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic affected both the economy and public health in the US, as well as the socioeconomic and psychological well-being of the population. During the pandemic, the total excess mortality in the US significantly exceeded the excess mortality from COVID-19.
A total of 1.3 million excess deaths were recorded in the US during the pandemic period, of which 1.17 million were from COVID-19, 115.7 thousand were deaths from circulatory diseases, 86.6 thousand from alcohol and drug use, 41.3 thousand from diabetes mellitus, and 25 thousand from external causes. The peaks of deaths from circulatory diseases coincided with the peaks of COVID-19 deaths, implying that covid deaths are likely to be included in deaths from BSC.
The information basis for the presented study was data on deaths by 8 causes and cause-of-death groups for 2015-2022 by sex and by age group with monthly temporal resolution. Regression model with application of machine learning was used to calculate the expected mortality rate.
The presenter showed graphs of monthly excess mortality trends from January 2019 through December 2022 for eight causes and cause groups: external causes, neoplasms, circulatory diseases, diabetes mellitus, influenza and pneumonia, suicide, drug and alcohol use, and all other causes, including COVID-19. Deaths from external causes during the pandemic were higher than expected, which the presenter suggested was due to increased drunk driving, but this issue requires further study. Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system also increased, the most among other causes in absolute numbers of deaths. In contrast, there were fewer deaths from influenza and pneumonia, which is attributed to a “shift” of deaths from people at risk for these diseases to COVID-19 deaths. The largest increase in deaths was due to drug and alcohol use. Social isolation, feelings of loneliness, and easy availability of drugs were cited as reasons for this increase. No seasonality was noted for this cause. Mortality from neoplasms did not increase despite decreased availability of medical care, but the rapporteur noted a “time lag” effect that could lead to an increase in cancer mortality 5-10 years after the pandemic. Mortality from diabetes mellitus increased meaningfully, retaining seasonality, especially at younger ages. Suicide mortality through 2022 was lower than predicted, which may be due to increased “social cohesion”.
A P-Score metric was calculated for the age groups, showing by how many percent people died above or below the baseline mortality rate. The largest excess, 35% for women and 40% for men, was due to diabetes mellitus in the ages 15-29. The most notable decrease relative to the baseline was in women from influenza and pneumonia in ages 15-29. The smallest differences with the baseline level were observed in mortality from neoplasms in all age groups.
Thus, the coronavirus pandemic had a greater impact on mortality in young and middle-aged populations in the United States than in other developed countries.