Seminar "Demographic development of Kazakhstan in the late 20th - early 21st centuries: state and problems"
On May 14, at the "Modern Demography" seminar, representatives from the international research center "Digital Social Research" at D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University (Republic of Kazakhstan) presented reports on the ethnic and demographic situation in Kazakhstan during the 20th and early 21st centuries, as well as on the level of demographic security in Kazakhstan.
The seminar began with an introduction to the ethno-demographic situation in Kazakhstan by Alexander Alexeenko. He presented the historical stages of demographic development in Kazakhstan, with a focus on the evolution of ethnic composition. In 1926, there were 3.6 million Kazakhs living in the country and they formed a majority. However, following the tragic events of the 1930s and post-war mass migrations, the Kazakh population temporarily lost its leadership, ceding to the ethnic Russians. By the end of the 1960s, the number of Kazakhs had recovered to the level of 1897. However, due to mass migrations of Russians and Ukrainians during this period, only one third of Kazakhstan's population was ethnic Kazakh. The last decades of Kazakhstan under the Soviet Union saw a migration outflow of predominantly Russian people. By 1989, the Kazakh population had become the majority, accounting for approximately 40% of the country's total population.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there was a significant outflow of Russian, Ukrainian, and German populations, but this was also accompanied by the return of over one million Kazakh expatriates to Kazakhstan. As of 2021, the Kazakh population has doubled to approximately 13.5 million, representing approximately 70% of the total population, while the Russian population has decreased to approximately 15%. Russian residents in Kazakhstan are predominantly older and reside in the northern parts of the country. Therefore, in modern-day Kazakhstan, demographic trends are largely shaped by the Kazakh ethnic group.
Zhanna Aubakirova's presentation on the demographic security of Kazakhstan emphasized the importance of considering regional disparities when analyzing the country, as it is essential to consider various demographic risk clusters.
One of these clusters is the territory of northern, eastern, and central Kazakhstan, where the so-called "northeastern demographic model" is observed. These regions face the risk of depopulation, population aging, and a narrowing of the reproductive base, which could lead to an increase in labor shortages and a greater demographic burden on the working-age population. Additionally, the author has warned about possible political risks such as loss of territorial control and threats to state sovereignty.
The southwestern demographic model, on the other hand, is evident in the territories of southern and western Kazakhstan, characterized by rapid population growth and a high demographic burden of children. This further increases the risk of youth overpopulation in cities and could lead to social inequality, elevated youth unemployment, and increased social tensions and criminal activity.
Zhanna Aubakirova emphasized the significance of a tailored approach to various regions of the country in addressing demographic challenges, as well as the necessity to narrow the disparity between regions. She stressed the significance of devising comprehensive strategies that account for the specific characteristics of each region and contribute to the overall demographic stability of the nation.
Bulat Shamsutdinov, research assistant.