Seminar "Models of the dynamics of viral infections and the impact of quarantine measures on the mental health of the population"
On March 3, at the seminar "Modern Demography", representatives of the Marchuk institute of numerical mathematics of the Russian academy of sciences, graduate student Andrey Vlad and Ph.D. Tatiana Sannikova talked about modeling the seasonality of viral infections and the impact of quarantine measures on the mental health of the population.
The seminar began with a speech by Andrey Vlad on the topic “Agent model of the dynamics of viral infections". At the beginning of the speech, Andrey Vlad drew attention to the wide variety of pathogens of viral infections and their variability. The purpose of the speaker's work is to build and implement an agent-based model of seasonal dynamics of acute respiratory infections of various etiologies in a megalopolis in the form of software complexes, with the help of which it is possible to model various strategies to reduce morbidity and evaluate their effectiveness.
In the constructed agent model of seasonal dynamics of acute respiratory viral infections, contacts between individuals in households, in the work collective and in educational institutions are simulated to simulate the incidence of one of the seven respiratory viruses (FluA, FluB, RV, RSV, AdV, PIV, CoV).
The influence of various scenarios of quarantine in schools and potential global warming on the dynamics of morbidity was investigated. Quarantines in schools are the most effective way to reduce morbidity. With an increase in the average annual temperature, the probability of contracting viral infections will decrease, especially in winter, since only when the epithelium of the respiratory tract cools, the probability of infection increases. The presented models can be used to predict morbidity and mortality.
Tatiana Sannikova continued the seminar by presenting a report on “The impact of stress and quarantine measures on the mental health of the population during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the anxiety of the population has sharply increased in the world. There are two indicators that determine the increase in the prevalence of major depressive (MDD) and anxiety disorders (AD): the number of new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection per day and restrictions on movement. In general, it is noted that women are more vulnerable than men. In the middle age groups, people are more vulnerable than at older ages.
It has been shown that the introduction of lockdown increases the likelihood of developing major depressive disorder and anxiety disorder in a vulnerable group of the population by 16.79%. The health losses associated with psychological disorders during the pandemic period account for about 19% of the total losses of healthy life years caused by COVID-19.
The assessment of health losses as a result of illness or death from a new coronavirus infection, as well as from stress caused by anxiety for loved ones and quarantine measures, allows you to compare the price of quarantine measures of different levels of severity. On the one hand, the stricter isolation measures decrease the number of Covid-19 cases. But, on the other hand, the more proportion of the population observes the self-isolation regime, the higher the increase in the incidence of depression and anxiety disorders.