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Seminar "Fertility change in urban and rural areas of developing countries"

The 11th scientific seminar ‘Modern demography’ was held on the 24th of may. Mathias Lerch, PhD, research scientist of the Laboratory of fertility and well-being of the Laboratory of fertility and well-being of Max Planck Institute for demographic research presented a paper "Fertility change in urban and rural areas of developing countries".

In his report, Mathias Lerch outlined the changes in the urban to rural population ratio occurring in 1950-2018, seen as a component of the demographic transition. M. Lerch elaborated on ways the demographic transition can affect the urbanization processes alongside with the further declines in the birth rate and mechanisms for transition`s further spread from urban to rural areas. The author proposed a model that considers the vital components of urban population growth. M. Lerch also elaborated on the theoretical component of the problem of fertility differences in urban and rural areas seen within the framework of their application to the emerging demographic changes. He also described the existing institutional differences considering the prospects of this problem.  

Analyzing the existing analytical problems and offering the detailed strategies for their solution, M. Lerch, offered an information on the data and methodology he used during the research. The results of the study presented to the audience proved, that the dynamics of the birth rate decline in urban areas was similar in all the regions of the world. The observed regional differences in the dynamics of excessive fertility in rural areas are mainly due to the heterogeneity of the time of the second demographic transition onset. In a conclusion, a hypothesis for further strengthening of the direct and indirect influence of migration processes on the urbanized population growth was discussed.

Presentation by M. Lerch