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Seminar "Relationship between mortality rates and economic development in the regions of Russia"

The 9th scientific seminar ‘Modern demography’ was held on the 29th of March. Evgeniy M. Andreev, PhD, laboratory head of the International laboratory for population and health NRU HSE, and Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, PhD, academic supervisor of the International laboratory for population and health NRU HSE, the research scientist at the Laboratory of demographic data of Max Planck Institute for demographic research, presented a paper "Relationship between mortality rates and economic development in the regions of Russia".

Andreev and Shkolnikov`s paper "Relationship between mortality rates and economic development in the regions of Russia" was presented at the seminar. In their presentation, Evgeniy M. Andreev and Vladimir M. Shkolnikov elaborated on the history of discovery the Preston curve which allows measuring the existing relationship between mortality rates and economic prosperity in a population.

This curve represents life expectancy at birth for both sexes as a function of the gross domestic product per capita in US dollars at purchasing power parity. Evgeniy M. Andreev and Vladimir M. Shkolnikov paid attention to the methodological aspects of the curve construction and its evolution and considered examples of the Preston curve for countries made in the 1930-60-s. The authors considered the recent theory of the inapplicability of the Preston curve for countries with high life expectancy and GDP per capita (in $ at PPP ), as well as factors that determined the formation of this error.

The outcome of the Preston curve construction for 57 countries with the necessary demographic statistics was presented during the speech. The results of the Preston model performed for the regions of the Russian Federation based on the 2010 population census were also presented. Having considered the data used for calculations and their quality, E.M. Andreev and V.M. Shkolnikov introduced the results they had arrived at for the regions of Russia in comparison with other countries with similar GDP PPP  amid the Preston curve.

Using decomposition method the authors determined the age intervals and causes of death causing the deviations of Russia and Moscow in life expectancy from those countries closest to Russia and Moscow in terms of per capita GDP. Using the rank correlation of Kendall and Spearman the authors analyzed the relationship between per capita GDP (in $ at PPP) and life expectancy in the regions of Russia in 2010, arriving at the conclusion that there is no link between life expectancy and GDP at the level of Russian regions. In conclusion, the possible reasons for the observed phenomenon were mentioned.
Presentation by E.M. Andreev and V.M. Shkolnikov