Fertility and reproductive attitudes of the population of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug is a major oil-producing region in Russia with a favorable demographic situation and a range of measures in place to support families with children. The reproductive attitudes of the population of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and the factors of their implementation were discussed at the seminar "Fertility and reproductive attitudes of the population of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug: results of an expedition trip", organized by the International Laboratory for Population and Health, HSE University.
The report was presented by Olga Rodina, a research assistant at the International Laboratory for Population and Health, a PhD student at the HSE Vishnevsky Institute of Demography.
Demographic situation in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (KhMAO) has been higher than the national average for the past ten years. In 2022, it stood at 1.67 children per woman, compared to 1.42 for Russia as a whole. The average age of a mother at birth is close to the national average, and in 2022 was 28.8 years. On average, women in KhMAO give birth to their first child slightly earlier, at 25.7 years, compared to the national average of 26.1 years.
The KhMAO ranks second in terms of socio-economic development, and is the largest oil-producing region in the country, implementing additional measures to support families with children. For example, the following programs are being implemented in KhMAO: Yugra Family Capital, "Growing up in YUGRA", a number of benefits and payments to large families.
Data
In August 2024, HSE students, postgraduates and teachers conducted a street survey of more than 900 residents of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug aged 15 to 39 years in the cities of Surgut and Kogalym. The data were collected during an expedition trip within the framework of the "Rediscovering Russia" program of the HSE Fund for Educational Innovation.
Reproductive attitudes of the KhMAO population
The ideal number of children (social norms about childbearing) in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug is similar to the national average, with families with two children being considered ideal. The desired number of children, or the number of children residents would like to have if they had all the necessary resources, is also high among residents, with men wishing for an average of 2.8 children and women wishing for 2.6. However, the expected number of children, which represents the number they intend to have, is lower than the desired number, at 2 for women and 2.1 for men. Despite this, overall, the average expected number of children among Khanty-Mansi residents is higher than the national average.
The gap between the desired and the expected number of children in a family is significant: 43% of respondents indicate that they intend to have fewer children than they would prefer. At the same time, 63% of those who indicated that 3 or more children would be ideal if all necessary conditions were met, settled on 1 or 2 children instead. Among those who prefer 2 children, 26% will only have one child.
What factors influence the decision to not have the desired number of children?
The analysis revealed that respondents aged 35 to 39, working women who perceive their financial situation as average or worse, are significantly more likely to refuse to have the desired number of children.
Factors of short-term reproductive intentions
38% of respondents in the sample stated that they intended to have (another) child within the next three years. This intention was most often declared by respondents in the most active reproductive age group (25–34 years), who were married, employed, had higher education, and held strong family values.
Socio-economic variables (financial status, housing status) in short-term reproductive intentions were generally not significant.
The financial situation of the family turned out to be a significant factor in the rejection of short-term plans to have a child only for men who already have one child. For women, this factor turned out to be unimportant.
Summary
The population of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug demonstrates a relatively high level of pro-natal attitudes. Most people desire to have three children, but approximately two-thirds of those who wish to have three or more children end up with one or two. Age and financial circumstances are the primary factors that contribute to the discrepancy between the desired and actual number of children. The significance of financial stability appears to be a logical reason for limiting the number of children, as each additional child increases the likelihood of family poverty. However, considering age as a barrier to achieving the desired number of offspring, given the relatively young average age of respondents (both men and women under 40), may indicate the existence of societal perceptions of negative consequences associated with delayed parenthood.
Short-term reproductive intentions are more influenced by values: more conservative approaches to parenthood and the family increase the likelihood of intending to have children within 3 years. However, there are nearly half as many people who adhere to conservative, family-centered values. In addition, the financial situation of a family is also significant for men. Individuals who intend to have only one child are more likely to postpone the birth of their first child compared to those with more positive attitudes towards reproduction.