Seminar presentation of the UN World Population Prospects 2024

On the evening of July 11, 2024, World Population Day, the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs presented the updated World Population Prospects 2024. On July 12, the International Laboratory for Population and Health Research in collaboration with the National Center for Population and Health Research of the National Research University Higher School of Economics held a seminar to present the new projections, where they also discussed the population projections for Russia prepared by Federal State Statistics Service, projections of the Global Burden of Disease and the health of the elderly in the context of population aging.

The World Population Prospects are estimates and projections of demographic indicators for 237 countries for the period from 1950 to 2100, which are updated every two years. The projection is prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects 2024 is published on the official World Population Prospects website. World Population Prospects' population estimates are based on all available sources of data on population, fertility, mortality, and international migration. The best and most reliable source of data is official statistics, which include data from censuses, population registers, and current statistics on natural and mechanical population movements. But official statistics for a given period of time are available for no more than 70% of countries. For all countries without exception, in addition to or instead of official statistics, estimates are calculated on the basis of large and regular socio-demographic surveys. In addition, the UN relies on data from international databases for its projections. The imprecision and lack of well-established demographic data collection in a number of countries make both the estimates and the projections for such a long period of time approximate, especially for countries in the global south. Projections cannot take into account the impact of unpredictable events, such as wars, epidemics, natural disasters or economic or political crises, on fertility, mortality, migration and population. The UN projections are based on certain scenarios. In particular, the UN assumes the theory of demographic transition, assuming that all countries of the world should pass through 4 stages of demographic transition, and assumes continuous growth of life expectancy.

Key findings from the UN World Population Prospects

MAXIMUM WORLD POPULATION TO BE REACHED THIS CENTURY

The UN predicts that the world population will continue to grow over the next 50 years, reaching a maximum of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. After that, a gradual population decline will begin, and by 2100 the world's population will return to 10.2 billion.

The projected population in 2100 is 6% or 700 million people less than projected 10 years ago. The projection of an earlier passage of the population peak is a consequence of changing demographic trends in the last decade. The stage of rapid rate of growth of the world population has passed. The rate of world population growth will decline rather smoothly, and in the mid-2080s will cross the zero mark and become negative. Population growth rates will decline on all continents, becoming negative everywhere except Africa and Oceania from the 2nd half onwards.

WOMEN NOW GIVE BIRTH TO AN AVERAGE OF 1 CHILD LESS THAN IT WAS IN THE EARLY 1990S.

The crude birth rate is now 2.25 children per woman, down from 3.3 children per woman in 1990.

Although still above replacement level globally, the SCR is continuously declining. The SCR is projected to fall to 2.1 children per woman in the early 2040s, and even lower in the early 2050s. In the mid-1960s, fertility will fall below 2 children per woman, and by 2100 it could be 1.8 children per woman. But continents and countries vary widely in their fertility rates. Constricted reproduction has been established on all continents except Africa. By the end of the century, the UN predicts that fertility levels will converge across continents. The UN predicts a decline in fertility in Central Asia (to about 2 children per woman) and stabilization in Europe (at about 1.6 children per woman).

WHILE EARLY FERTILITY IS STILL HIGH, THE AGE PROFILE OF FERTILITY IS CHANGING TOWARDS LATER MOTHERHOOD

Early fertility is still a challenge in the world at large. In 2024, about 4.7 million children are expected to be born to mothers under the age of 18. Fertility among adolescents under 20 is expected to continue to decline, which should have a positive impact on women's reproductive health, education and labor force participation.

Fertility among 20-24 year old women is projected to continue to decline quite steeply. But the decline in fertility among 25-29 year olds will be rather slow. At the same time, fertility among women aged 30-34 and 35-39 is expected to increase. No significant changes in childbearing intensity among women over 40 years of age are projected. The decline in the frequency of childbearing in adolescence and early reproductive years will lead to a slow, continuous increase in the average age of the mother at childbirth. It is currently 28.2 years and will be just over 30 years by 2100.

THE WORLD'S POPULATION IS GROWING BECAUSE OF ITS YOUNG AGE STRUCTURE

The world's population is quite young and the number of women of reproductive age in the world will only increase until the end of the 2050s. The increase in the number of births will continue until the mid-2040s.

The peak number of births on all continents except Africa and Oceania occurred in the 20th century. From the second half of the 21st century, Africa will have the highest number of births.

LIFE EXPECTANCY HAS RECOVERED TO ITS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE

A decline in LE was observed in 2020-2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic affecting every country in the world. LE decreased from 72.6 years in 2019 to 70.9 years in 2020. Beginning in 2022, LE has returned to the level seen before the pandemic.

Life expectancy for the world population as a whole reaches 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Subsequent declines in mortality are expected to increase LE to 77 years by 2050 and 81.7 years by 2100. Growth in life expectancy at birth will continue on all continents, but convergence between them is not expected. By the end of the century, life expectancy at birth for males will exceed 80 years and 85 years for females in all subregions, with significant gaps between subregions remaining.

MORTALITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE AT ALL AGES

Infant mortality continues to decline steadily, although the rate is still high at 28 deaths per 1,000 live births. By 2040, infant mortality is expected to reach an average of less than 20 deaths per 1,000 live births. It may take another 55 years to further reduce infant mortality to the low level of less than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births that is already occurring in all developed countries.

Reductions in mortality will be observed not only among children under one year of age, but also in all other age groups. Thus, increasing life expectancy is likely to make a positive contribution to world population growth or help slow population decline in those countries that have already reached peak population. For the latter, lower mortality will be a key factor, along with immigration, in reducing the rate of population decline caused by below-replacement fertility.

The gap in middle-age mortality between Western and Northern Europe and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, having slightly decreased, will remain until the end of the century.

BY 2080, THE POPULATION OVER 65 WILL EXCEED THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 18

By the end of the 2070s, the number of the world's elderly (65+) is expected to reach 2.2 billion, exceeding the number of children under 18. The number of people over 80 will exceed the number of children under a year old by the mid-2030s, reaching 265 million.

Further projected decline in fertility and mortality will lead to the fact that by 2100, the world's sex-age pyramid will resemble an urn, and the age structure will become regressive. Given that women, on average, live longer than men, we can expect to see more of them among the elderly.

The proportion of the elderly (65+) is now 10%, rising to 16% by 2050 and 24% by 2100. The aging of the world's population has accelerated. Population ageing is a major challenge, as it is almost impossible for the world's population to return to a young age structure.

The median age of the population is now 30.5 years. Due to the changing ratio of children to the elderly, the median age of the population will continuously increase.  It is projected to reach 35 years by 2045 and 40 years by 2080. By 2100, one in two people on earth will be over 42 years old.

To read more about the key findings of the World Population Prospects 2024, please see the official UN publication.

Program: 

Program (PDF, 248 Кб)

To watch the video of the seminar-presentation of the UN World Population Prospects held at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, please visit: https://youtu.be/8XA3BSuVNEA.

 

 

Translation was made by Inna Panafidina