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Regular version of the site

Seminar presentation of the UN World Population Prospects 2024

On the evening of July 11, 2024, World Population Day, the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs presented the updated World Population Prospects 2024. On July 12, the International Laboratory for Population and Health Research in collaboration with the National Center for Population and Health Research of the National Research University Higher School of Economics held a seminar to present the new projections, where they also discussed the population projections for Russia prepared by Federal State Statistics Service, projections of the Global Burden of Disease and the health of the elderly in the context of population aging.

The World Population Prospects are estimates and projections of demographic indicators for 237 countries for the period from 1950 to 2100, which are updated every two years. The projection is prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects 2024 is published on the official World Population Prospects website. World Population Prospects' population estimates are based on all available sources of data on population, fertility, mortality, and international migration. The best and most reliable source of data is official statistics, which include data from censuses, population registers, and current statistics on natural and mechanical population movements. But official statistics for a given period of time are available for no more than 70% of countries. For all countries without exception, in addition to or instead of official statistics, estimates are calculated on the basis of large and regular socio-demographic surveys. In addition, the UN relies on data from international databases for its projections. The imprecision and lack of well-established demographic data collection in a number of countries make both the estimates and the projections for such a long period of time approximate, especially for countries in the global south. Projections cannot take into account the impact of unpredictable events, such as wars, epidemics, natural disasters or economic or political crises, on fertility, mortality, migration and population. The UN projections are based on certain scenarios. In particular, the UN assumes the theory of demographic transition, assuming that all countries of the world should pass through 4 stages of demographic transition, and assumes continuous growth of life expectancy.

Key findings from the UN World Population Prospects

MAXIMUM WORLD POPULATION TO BE REACHED THIS CENTURY

The UN predicts that the world population will continue to grow over the next 50 years, reaching a maximum of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. After that, a gradual population decline will begin, and by 2100 the world's population will return to 10.2 billion.

WOMEN NOW GIVE BIRTH TO AN AVERAGE OF 1 CHILD LESS THAN IT WAS IN THE EARLY 1990S.

The crude birth rate is now 2.25 children per woman, down from 3.3 children per woman in 1990.

WHILE EARLY FERTILITY IS STILL HIGH, THE AGE PROFILE OF FERTILITY IS CHANGING TOWARDS LATER MOTHERHOOD

Early fertility is still a challenge in the world at large. In 2024, about 4.7 million children are expected to be born to mothers under the age of 18. Fertility among adolescents under 20 is expected to continue to decline, which should have a positive impact on women's reproductive health, education and labor force participation.

THE WORLD'S POPULATION IS GROWING BECAUSE OF ITS YOUNG AGE STRUCTURE

The world's population is quite young and the number of women of reproductive age in the world will only increase until the end of the 2050s. The increase in the number of births will continue until the mid-2040s.

LIFE EXPECTANCY HAS RECOVERED TO ITS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE

A decline in LE was observed in 2020-2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic affecting every country in the world. LE decreased from 72.6 years in 2019 to 70.9 years in 2020. Beginning in 2022, LE has returned to the level seen before the pandemic.

MORTALITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE AT ALL AGES

Infant mortality continues to decline steadily, although the rate is still high at 28 deaths per 1,000 live births. By 2040, infant mortality is expected to reach an average of less than 20 deaths per 1,000 live births. It may take another 55 years to further reduce infant mortality to the low level of less than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births that is already occurring in all developed countries.

BY 2080, THE POPULATION OVER 65 WILL EXCEED THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 18

By the end of the 2070s, the number of the world's elderly (65+) is expected to reach 2.2 billion, exceeding the number of children under 18. The number of people over 80 will exceed the number of children under a year old by the mid-2030s, reaching 265 million.

To read more about the key findings of the World Population Prospects 2024, please see the official UN publication.

Program: 

Program (PDF, 248 Кб)

To watch the video of the seminar-presentation of the UN World Population Prospects held at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, please visit: https://youtu.be/8XA3BSuVNEA.

 

 

Translation was made by Inna Panafidina