Spatial Differences in Mortality of the Elderly Population in Russia

On June 4, 2025, the International Laboratory for Population and Health held a seminar on "Spatial Differences in Mortality of the Elderly Population in Russia." The presentation was delivered by Bulat Shamsutdinov, a research assistant at the laboratory, who shared the findings of his dissertation research.

Relevance 

The seminar focused on studying mortality among the population aged 65 and older, which is characterized by significant regional heterogeneity in Russia. According to the presented data, the share of people aged 65 and older increased from 8.3% in 1970 to 16.5% in 2023. Since 2003, life expectancy at age 65 has been rising, despite a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Challenges in Statistics and Methodology

The presenter noted that traditional methods for estimating the population aged 90 and older lead to overestimation, which in turn understate mortality rates in this age group. To address this, the study employed the extinct cohort method, which provides more accurate demographic estimates. The analysis was based on data from Rosstat and the Human Mortality Database. The research utilized methods of demographic analysis, standardization of mortality rates, and geospatial analysis using ArcGIS.

Regional Differences in Causes of Death

The study revealed significant geographic variation in the structure of causes of death among the elderly population. Cardiovascular diseases account for the majority of deaths, but regions vary considerably in the prevalence of other causes, such as neoplasms, psychoneurological disorders, and unspecified causes. Cluster analysis identified stable regional groups with distinct mortality profiles, such as the "cardiovascular profile" and the "transitional type with moderate mortality from old age." Notable gender differences were also observed, with spatial patterns being more pronounced among men than women.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The findings underscore the need to consider regional specifics when developing measures to reduce elderly mortality. Particular attention should be paid to improving the quality of statistical reporting and standardizing the coding of causes of death. Bulat Shamsutdinov recommended that Russian statistics agencies adopt the extinct cohort method for more accurate estimation of the population aged 90 and older.