Air temperature and population health in Russian cities: results of the first national study, 2000–2019
On May 15, the International Laboratory for Population and Health, in collaboration with the International Laboratory of Landscape Ecology, held a seminar on “Air temperature and population health in Russian cities: results of the first national study, 2000–2019.”The seminar featured presentations by Sergey Timonin, a research fellow at the Australian National University, and Natalia Shartova, a postdoctoral researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.
The impact of air temperature on population health in Russian cities
The impact of suboptimal air temperatures on population health in Russian cities was discussed at a seminar held on May 15, 2025, entitled “Air temperature and population health in Russian cities: results of the first country study, 2000–19.”
Sergey Timonin, a research fellow at the Australian National University, and Natalia Shartova, a postdoctoral researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, presented a report on the results of their study.
Heat waves and cold spells
Due to global climate change, there is a worldwide trend toward more frequent extreme weather events, including heat waves and cold spells. There is a significant body of research demonstrating their negative impact on population health and mortality.
The problem
Although recent methodological advances and improvements in data quality and availability have enabled more accurate estimates of the relationship between temperature and mortality, these studies cover only a limited number of countries. There is a lack of more comprehensive studies of the relationship between daily ambient temperature and health indicators, especially for the most vulnerable population groups living in different climatic conditions. Existing data on temperature-related mortality in Russia are limited to studies of the impact of heat waves or cold spells on mortality in individual cities, while this study covers the 300 largest cities in the country.
What proportion of deaths are caused by exposure to temperatures?
According to the authors' calculations, the proportion of deaths related to exposure to suboptimal temperatures in 300 Russian cities in 2000-2019 is 11.14% of all deaths, excluding deaths from external causes, of which 10.67% are from cold and only 0.47% from heat.
At the same time, differences between age groups in heat-related mortality risk are more pronounced among women than among men. Men aged 0-59 have a higher risk of heat-related mortality than women of the same age.
What are the spatial patterns of temperature-related mortality in Russia?
The European part of Russia is more vulnerable to heat, while there are no regional differences in cold-related mortality risk in Russia. Siberian cities are characterized by a higher risk of heat-related mortality among men aged 0-59. A similar pattern can be observed for cold-related mortality risk, but for the 60-74 age group.
Presentation