Seminar: "Modern Demography". Topic: "Demographic indicators of the Presidential decree from May (2018)". Presentation by E.M. Andreev

Life expectancy correlates with mortality within a single population. The significance of this relationship ranges from functional to almost statistically insignificant. But if one specifies the place and the time (for example, South America, mid-20th century or Eastern Europe, 21st century), this relationship will become quite tangible. Same principles are applying to fertility rates. These relationships are commonly used for demographic projections and modeling of the missing demographic data. In our report, these methods are applied to the demographic indicators found in the presidential decree from May (2018). The question is: to what extent the successful dynamics of one group of indicators may influence the attainment of the suggested control values of the others.

We also highlight areas, associated with significant methodological challenges.

In order to assess the relationship between life expectancy and mortality rates at working age and for individual causes of death, as well as between the total fertility rate and natural population increase, we forecasted the Russian population for time period 2018-2024, based on the demographic indicators found in the decree.

Time: 16.00 - 18.00

Venue: Bolshoy Trehsvyatitelsky pereulok, 3, Room 523.

Working language will be Russian.

If you need to order a pass to the building of the HSE, please inform about your participation by e-mail vsokolova@hse.ru (Vera Sokolova) by 12.00 on February 7, 2019.