Семинар "Социальная и пространственная близость и демографические изменения: инновационный аналитический подход на основе микроданных переписи"

Время: Среда, 18 октября, 16-00 - 18-00
Место: Б.Трехсвятительский пер., д.3, ауд. 511
Рабочий язык – английский

Тезисы: 

Over the last decades large individual-level census datasets have become increasingly accessible to researchers.Such data, which are also available for Russia, offer huge potential for analyses that look at the interplay between individuals and socioeconomic regional macro-level conditions. This presentation provides an example how to make use of this potential. We take an innovative approach to explore which elements of the fertility decline patterns by social classes and regions that were observed during the demographic transition could potentially stem from communication processes in which individuals exchange information relevant for the behavioral change. These patterns include that higher classes and cities were experiencing the decline first, and that the decline was spatially more homogenous among the upper compared to the lower classes. With this we contribute to the debate whether the fertility transition was rather driven by the adaptation to changing socioeconomic conditions or the diffusion of information. While there is strong empirical evidence for the former, support for the latter is frequently weaker as communication processes are more difficult to measure than socioeconomic change. Based on data for Sweden and Senegal we specify agent-based simulation models in which migration links between regions stratified by social status serve as proxies for communication links among which we let information diffuse. Our models demonstrate that virtually all major social and spatiotemporal characteristics of the fertility decline that were observed in many countries around the world could potentially stem from communication processes structured by variation in communication links.

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